G. Elliott Morris elliottmorris
We can make this file beautiful and searchable if this error is corrected: It looks like row 10 should actually have 12 columns, instead of 11 in line 9.
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| precinct,rehmet_total,wom_total,total_2026,dem_total_2026,dem_pct_2026,trump_total,harris_total,total_2024,dem_pct_2024,diff_pct,relto | |
| 1001,200,89,289,200,69.20415224913495,646,683,1351,51.39202407825433,17.81212817088062,0.21391561806069578 | |
| 1005,74,3,77,74,96.1038961038961,75,346,426,82.18527315914488,13.91862294475122,0.1807511737089202 | |
| 1008,37,6,43,37,86.04651162790698,29,126,156,81.29032258064515,4.756189047261827,0.27564102564102566 | |
| 1010,21,2,23,21,91.30434782608695,67,125,195,65.10416666666666,26.200181159420296,0.11794871794871795 | |
| 1011,67,5,72,67,93.05555555555556,105,327,434,75.69444444444444,17.361111111111114,0.16589861751152074 | |
| 1015,143,18,161,143,88.81987577639751,264,403,674,60.41979010494752,28.400085671449986,0.23887240356083086 | |
| 1019,57,5,62,57,91.93548387096774,141,199,343,58.529411764705884,33.40607210626186,0.18075801749271136 | |
| 1056,5,1,6,5,83.33333333333334,40,113,156,73.8562091503268,9.477124183006538,0.038461538461538464 | |
| 1059,56,5,61,56,91.80327868852459,113,293,413,72.16748768472905,19.63 |
elliottmorris
/ midterm-rdpi-seats-data.csv
Created
January 5, 2026 17:20
correlation between midterm seat loss and rdpi
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| Year | President | Party | House_Seat_Change | RDPI_YoY_Pct_Change_July | RDPI_Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | Harry S. Truman | D | -55 | -1.1 | FRED A067RL1A156NBEA (annual % chg, total RDPI): 1945-1946 | |
| 1950 | Harry S. Truman | D | -29 | 8.71 | FRED DPIC96: Q2-49 (1564.4) to Q2-50 (1700.7) | |
| 1954 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | R | -18 | -0.22 | FRED DPIC96: Q2-53 (1935.2) to Q2-54 (1931.0) | |
| 1958 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | R | -48 | -0.36 | FRED DPIC96: Q2-57 (2238.1) to Q2-58 (2230.0) | |
| 1962 | John F. Kennedy | D | -4 | 4.58 | FRED DSPIC96: Jul-61 (2517.6) to Jul-62 (2633.0) | |
| 1966 | Lyndon B. Johnson | D | -47 | 5.25 | FRED DSPIC96: Jul-65 (3097.8) to Jul-66 (3260.4) | |
| 1970 | Richard Nixon | R | -12 | 5.05 | FRED DSPIC96: Jul-69 (3705.6) to Jul-70 (3892.6) | |
| 1974 | Gerald R. Ford | R | -48 | -1.34 | FRED DSPIC96: Jul-73 (4499.0) to Jul-74 (4438.7) | |
| 1978 | Jimmy Carter | D | -15 | 4.77 | FRED DSPIC96: Jul-77 (4841.6) to Jul-78 (5072.8) |
elliottmorris
/ affordability.R
Last active
December 2, 2025 13:12
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| library(tidyverse) | |
| library(janitor) | |
| library(zoo) | |
| library(scales) | |
| clean_and_avg = function(series){ | |
| dat = read_csv(sprintf('%s.csv',series)) | |
elliottmorris
/ war_and_ideo.csv
Created
August 12, 2025 14:25
2024 Strength In Numbers WAR estimates with Bonica's CFscore
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| party | cycle | state_name | district | representative | WAR | ideo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dem | 2024 | Alabama | 2 | Shomari Figures | -0.0142956 | -2.40172899842457 | |
| dem | 2024 | Alabama | 7 | Terri A. Sewell | -0.013435550000000001 | -2.07122942055397 | |
| dem | 2024 | Arizona | 3 | Yassamin Ansari | -0.0015478900000000001 | -1.9319779182875 | |
| dem | 2024 | Arizona | 4 | Greg Stanton | -0.008184455 | -2.18490810244875 | |
| dem | 2024 | Arizona | 7 | Raúl Grijalva | -0.018168 | -3.33143206893384 | |
| dem | 2024 | California | 2 | Jared Huffman | 0.00308888 | -3.35023512544864 | |
| dem | 2024 | California | 4 | Mike Thompson | 0.018705350000000003 | -2.10464881402841 | |
| dem | 2024 | California | 6 | Ami Bera | -0.013199550000000001 | -2.40293561432867 | |
| dem | 2024 | California | 7 | Doris Matsui | 0.0075622499999999995 | -2.67086471545931 |
elliottmorris
/ main_2024_trump_musk.R
Created
July 10, 2025 05:22
Figuring out who would vote for Musk using ANES data
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| library(tidyverse) | |
| library(survey) | |
| # mutate weight variable | |
| dat = read_csv('anes_timeseries_2024_csv_20250430.csv') %>% | |
| filter(V241012 == 1) %>%# RVs | |
| mutate(weight = case_when(!is.na(V240103b) ~ V240103b, | |
| !is.na(V240104b) ~ V240104b, | |
| !is.na(V240104b) ~ V240104b, | |
| !is.na(V240103a) ~ V240103a, |
elliottmorris
/ cpi_adj_outlays.R
Created
April 11, 2025 13:18
script to look at federal spending by year
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| library(tidyverse) | |
| library(zoo) | |
| dat = read_csv('~/Desktop/selected_outlays_2025-04-10.csv') %>% | |
| select(date, spend = `Cumulative year-to-date`) | |
| dat = tibble( | |
| date = ymd(as_date(min(dat$date):max(dat$date))) | |
| ) %>% |
elliottmorris
/ gist:94ac7a4dc7b96aa13294aa18794c5803
Created
April 3, 2025 14:04
trump issue approval march 2025
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| library(tidyverse) | |
| library(janitor) | |
| dat = read_csv('~/Downloads/Trump issue approval march - Sheet1.csv') | |
| dat = clean_names(dat) | |
| dat %>% group_by(category) %>% | |
| summarise_at(c('approve', 'disapprove', 'net'), mean) %>% | |
| mutate_if(is.numeric,round_half_up,1) %>% |
elliottmorris
/ ElectionResults.xlsx
Created
April 2, 2025 02:38
Wisconsin Supreme Court Election live modeling, Apr 1 2025
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| download excel file from: https://elections.countyofdane.com/Precincts-Result/179/0005 |
elliottmorris
/ bayes update young voters.R
Created
November 27, 2023 22:50
for twitter. showing how to combine a prior (past election results) and data (polls) for certain poll subgroups
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| library(tidyverse) | |
| bayes_update_normal = function( | |
| data_mu, | |
| data_se, | |
| prior_mu = 0, | |
| prior_se = 3){ | |
| if(all(data_mu == 0)){ | |
| return(c(0,0)) |
elliottmorris
/ Untitled spreadsheet - Sheet1.csv
Created
October 17, 2023 15:51
chart for Matt and Derek
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| country | inflation (YoY Sept 2023) | Leader approval | Disapproval | Net | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 7.37 | 23 | 73 | -50 | |
| Belgium | 2.39 | 38 | 46 | -8 | |
| Brazil | 5.19 | 51 | 45 | 6 | |
| Canada | 4 | 33 | 59 | -26 | |
| France | 4.86 | 23 | 72 | -49 | |
| Germany | 4.53 | 25 | 68 | -43 | |
| Ireland | 6.41 | 39 | 52 | -13 | |
| Italy | 5.44 | 44 | 51 | -7 | |
| Japan | 3.2 | 23 | 63 | -40 |
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